The average price of the Norwegian salmon in 2018 or down 18%!
Recently, a Danish bank analysts predicted, if the Norwegian salmon production keep this year's growth rate next year, and the market environment is not changed, then 2018 Norwegian salmon prices are likely to fall 18%. That said, the average price per kilogram of Norwegian salmon could fall to 48 kroner, or $38.15.
This year, by contrast, prices are indeed high. At the beginning of 2017, the average price of Norwegian salmon rose to 80 kroner per kg, and it is now stable at about 50 kronor.
According to the Danish banking analysts predict that Norwegian salmon output will increase to 1.315 million tons in 2018, the UK and forecasts are reduce the number of the faroe islands, the Chilean salmon production is expected to reach 599000 tons, up 10% from a year earlier. The total global salmon production in 2018 is around 2428 million tons, an increase of 8 percent from this year's forecast.
The total output of global salmon in 2019 is 25.88 million tons, up 6.5% year on year. The forecast for 2020 is 2694 million tons, up 4.2 percent year on year.
Given the modest increase in global salmon production in 2019, the supply situation is not so large as in 2018, so prices are likely to be stable at 48 kronor/kg. In addition, the Danish bank believes that Norwegian salmon farming costs will be stable at 37 kronor per kg. This means that companies will see their profits shrink by about 14 per cent.
To get the market to digest the salmon quickly, Norwegian companies need to expand further. In the past few years, it has been hit by a shortage of supplies and high prices. Norwegian salmon has seen a lot of decline in European market share and next year will be a turning point.
On the other hand, in the Chinese market, the frequency of frozen Norwegian salmon has begun to increase in the Chinese market, which is a step further away from the true "lifting ban".